{"doi":"10.64898/2025.12.08.25341850","title":"Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity Predicts Dementia Onset in a National Cohort of Older Adults","abstract":"Abstract Identifying scalable, objective markers of dementia risk is essential for early prevention and intervention. Physical activity is a key modifiable risk factor, yet evidence from device-based measures in representative populations remains limited. Using nationally representative data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), we examined whether wrist-worn accelerometry predicts incident dementia in a cohort of 562 participants aged ≥ 65 years without dementia at baseline. Over one year of follow-up, higher physical activity levels were associated with lower risk of incident dementia (OR = 0.66, 95% CI [0.55 - 0.79]), even after adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities (OR = 0.68, 95% CI [0.57 - 0.82]). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses indicate that accelerometry modestly outperforms self-reported physical capacity in predicting dementia onset. These findings support the use of wearable-derived activity metrics as a potential digital biomarker for dementia risk stratification in population and clinical settings.","journal":"medRxiv","year":2025,"id":584697,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":0,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9533,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2025-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":636949,"name":"Ching-Hsuan Huang","orcid":"0000-0002-7283-7032","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1497825,"name":"Karl Brown","orcid":"0000-0001-8132-1196","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1498227,"name":"Kevin M. Vintch","orcid":null,"position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":351414,"name":"Andrew Shutes‐David","orcid":"0000-0003-2478-4391","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":676408,"name":"Katherine Wilson","orcid":"0000-0003-3068-5971","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":267874,"name":"Edmund Seto","orcid":"0000-0003-4058-0313","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":108610,"name":"Debby W. Tsuang","orcid":"0000-0002-4716-1894","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1497824,"name":"Matthew Ko","orcid":"0009-0006-8168-0045","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":28,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T02:59:16.166424Z","pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}