{"doi":"10.5588/ijtld.22.0668","title":"Survival of people with untreated TB: effects of time, geography and setting","abstract":"BACKGROUND: An estimated 40% of people who developed TB in 2021 were not diagnosed or treated. Pre-chemotherapy era data are a rich resource on survival of people with untreated TB. We aimed to identify heterogeneities in these data to inform their more precise use. METHODS: We extracted survival data from pre-chemotherapy era papers reporting TB-specific mortality and/or natural recovery data. We used Bayesian parametric survival analysis to model the survival distribution, stratifying by geography (North America vs. Europe), time (pre-1930 vs. post-1930), and setting (sanitoria vs. non-sanitoria). RESULTS: We found 12 studies with TB-specific mortality data. Ten-year survival was 69% in North America (95% CI 54–81) and 36% in Europe (95% CI 10–71). Only 38% (95% CI 18–63) of non-sanitorium individuals survived to 10 years compared to 69% (95% CI 41–87) of sanitoria/hospitalized patients. There were no significant differences between people diagnosed pre-1930 and post-1930 (5-year survival pre-1930: 65%, 95% CI 44–88 vs. post-1930: 72%, 95% CI 41–94). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality and natural recovery risks vary substantially by location and setting. These heterogeneities need to be considered when using pre-chemotherapy data to make inferences about expected survival of people with undiagnosed TB.","journal":"The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease","year":2023,"id":377440,"datarank":0.20794415416798362,"base_score":1.3862943611198906,"endowment":1.3862943611198906,"self_citation_contribution":0.20794415416798362,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.20794415416798362,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":35.18991258606018,"corpus_rank":8206,"citation_count":3,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":true,"is_dataset_confidence":0.6681,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2023-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":405115,"name":"Sarah V. Leavitt","orcid":"0000-0003-1542-4239","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":527263,"name":"Tara C. Bouton","orcid":"0000-0002-1521-148X","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":231885,"name":"C. Robert Horsburgh","orcid":"0000-0001-6838-7895","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1012410,"name":"Pia Abel zur Wiesch","orcid":"0000-0001-9420-9005","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":415449,"name":"Brooke E Nichols","orcid":"0000-0003-4682-4999","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":405116,"name":"Helen E. Jenkins","orcid":"0000-0003-4749-1591","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":109905,"name":"Laura F. White","orcid":"0000-0002-0588-8235","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":770423,"name":"Carly A. Rodriguez","orcid":"0000-0003-0023-2111","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":20,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T01:16:36.370283Z","pmid":"37608480","pmcid":"PMC10443783","fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}