{"doi":"10.31234/osf.io/b3fkw","title":"An Introduction to Causal Inference","abstract":"<p>Causal inference goes beyond prediction by modeling the outcome of interventions and formalizing counterfactual reasoning. Instead of restricting causal conclusions to experiments, causal inference explicates the conditions under which it is possible to draw causal conclusions even from observational data. In this paper, I provide a concise introduction to the graphical approach to causal inference, which uses Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) to visualize, and Structural Causal Models (SCMs) to relate probabilistic and causal relationships. Successively, we climb what Judea Pearl calls the \"causal hierarchy\" --- moving from association to intervention to counterfactuals. I explain how DAGs can help us reason about associations between variables as well as interventions; how the do-calculus leads to a satisfactory definition of confounding, thereby clarifying, among other things, Simpson's paradox; and how SCMs enable us to reason about what could have been. Lastly, I discuss a number of challenges in applying causal inference in practice.</p>","journal":null,"year":null,"id":613134,"datarank":0.5533319181170905,"base_score":3.6888794541139363,"endowment":3.6888794541139363,"self_citation_contribution":0.5533319181170905,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.5533319181170905,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":39,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":null,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":false,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":null,"fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":1579321,"name":"Fabian Dablander","orcid":"0000-0003-2650-6491","position":0,"is_corresponding":false}],"reference_count":0,"raw_metadata":{"has_enrichment":true,"resolved":true,"title":"An Introduction to Causal Inference","abstract":"<p>Causal inference goes beyond prediction by modeling the outcome of interventions and formalizing counterfactual reasoning. Instead of restricting causal conclusions to experiments, causal inference explicates the conditions under which it is possible to draw causal conclusions even from observational data. In this paper, I provide a concise introduction to the graphical approach to causal inference, which uses Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) to visualize, and Structural Causal Models (SCMs) to relate probabilistic and causal relationships. Successively, we climb what Judea Pearl calls the \"causal hierarchy\" --- moving from association to intervention to counterfactuals. I explain how DAGs can help us reason about associations between variables as well as interventions; how the do-calculus leads to a satisfactory definition of confounding, thereby clarifying, among other things, Simpson's paradox; and how SCMs enable us to reason about what could have been. Lastly, I discuss a number of challenges in applying causal inference in practice.</p>","is_dataset_classified":null,"base_score":3.6888794541139363,"endowment":3.6888794541139363,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"views":0,"has_version_chain":false,"is_dataset":false,"is_oa":false,"pmid":"21097893","pmcid":null,"openalex_id":"https://openalex.org/W3160160539","authors":[],"funders":[],"total_grants":0,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"citation_trend":[{"year":2020,"count":5},{"year":2021,"count":7},{"year":2022,"count":4},{"year":2023,"count":9},{"year":2024,"count":6},{"year":2025,"count":6},{"year":2026,"count":2}],"oa_status":"gold","license":"cc-by","oa_locations":[{"url":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/b3fkw","host_type":""},{"url":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/b3fkw","host_type":""},{"url":"http://doi.org/10.31234/OSF.IO/B3FKW","host_type":"repository"},{"url":"https://osf.io/b3fkw","host_type":"repository"}],"fields_of_study":["Philosophy and History of Science","Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference"],"mesh_terms":[],"keywords":["Causal inference","Counterfactual thinking","Causal model","Inference","Causal reasoning","Computer science","Causal structure","Counterfactual conditional","Frequentist inference","Causality (physics)","Directed acyclic graph","Probabilistic logic","Graphical model","Outcome (game theory)","Observational study","Hierarchy","Bayesian inference","Bayesian probability","Artificial intelligence","Psychology","Econometrics","Mathematics","Algorithm","Mathematical economics","Cognition","Social psychology"],"sdg_mappings":[],"linked_datasets":[],"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"database_accessions":[],"source":"live","citation_network_status":"fetched"},"created_at":"2026-08-02T06:45:19.859695Z","pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}