{"doi":"10.31234/osf.io/5cbkt","title":"Triangulating on Developmental Models with a Combination of Experimental and Non-Experimental Estimates","abstract":"Plausible competing developmental models show similar or identical structural equation modeling (SEM) model fit indices, despite making very different causal predictions. One way to help address this problem is incorporating outside information into selecting among models. This study attempted to select among developmental models of children’s early mathematical skills by incorporating information about the extent to which models forecast the longitudinal pattern of causal impacts of early math interventions. We test for the usefulness and validity of the approach by applying it to data from three randomized controlled trials of early math interventions with longitudinal follow-up assessments in the U.S. (Ns = 1375, 591, 744; baseline age 4.3, 6.5, 4.4; 17%-69% Black). We find that, across datasets: 1) some models consistently outperform other models at forecasting later experimental impacts, 2) traditional statistical fit indices are not strongly related to causal fit as indexed by models’ accuracy at forecasting later experimental impacts, and 3) models show consistent patterns of similarity and discrepancy between statistical fit and models’ effectiveness at forecasting experimental impacts. We highlight the importance of triangulation and call for more comparisons of experimental and non-experimental estimates for choosing among developmental models.","journal":"PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints)","year":2021,"id":216589,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":4,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9505,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2021-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":756980,"name":"Timothy R. Brick","orcid":"0000-0002-3339-9279","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":812493,"name":"Daniela Alvarez-Vargas","orcid":"0000-0002-4075-1154","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":812494,"name":"Drew H. Bailey","orcid":"0000-0002-7812-1107","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":812492,"name":"Sirui Wan","orcid":"0000-0002-8750-0977","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":46,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-18T23:53:11.245932Z","pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}