{"doi":"10.31222/osf.io/h29xn","title":"Estimating the extent of inflated significance in economics","abstract":"<p>Using a sample of 70,399 published p-values from 192 meta-analyses, we empirically estimate the counterfactual distribution of p-values in the absence of any biases. Comparing observed p-values with counterfactually expected p-values allows us to estimate how many p-values are published as being statistically significant when they should have been published as being non-significant. We estimate the extent of inflated significance to range between 56.2% and 71.3% of the significant p-values. Subsample analysis suggests that the extent of inflated significance is reduced in research fields that use experimental designs, analyze microeconomics research questions and have at least some adequately powered studies.</p>","journal":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","year":2022,"id":2414,"datarank":0.37539636162890133,"base_score":1.9459101490553132,"endowment":1.9459101490553132,"self_citation_contribution":0.29188652235829704,"citation_network_contribution":0.08350983927060428,"self_endowment_contribution":0.29188652235829704,"citer_contribution":0.08350983927060428,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":6,"citer_count":5,"citers_with_citation_signal":4,"citers_with_endowment":4,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.044,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2022-03-11","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":29539,"name":"Teshome Kebede Deressa","orcid":null,"position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":18603,"name":"T. D. Stanley","orcid":"0000-0002-3205-1983","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":18604,"name":"Hristos Doucouliagos","orcid":"0000-0001-5269-3556","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":148,"name":"John P. A. Ioannidis","orcid":"0000-0003-3118-6859","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":29540,"name":"Stephan B. Bruns","orcid":"0000-0002-3028-9699","position":5,"is_corresponding":false}],"reference_count":51,"raw_metadata":{"citation_network_status":"fetched"},"created_at":"2026-03-01T18:20:47.508186Z","pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}