{"doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-201011","title":"Unemployment after the Recession: A New Natural Rate?","abstract":"<jats:p>The past recession has hit the labor market especially hard, and economists are wondering whether some fundamentals of the market have changed because of that blow. Many are suggesting that the natural rate of long-term unemployment— the level of unemployment an economy can’t go below—-has shifted permanently higher. We use a new measure that is based on the rates at which workers are finding and losing jobs and which provides a more accurate assessment of the natural rate. We find that the natural rate of unemployment has indeed shifted higher—but much less so than has been suggested. Surprising trends in both the job-finding and job-separation rates explain much about the current state of the unemployment rate.</jats:p>","journal":"Economic Commentary  (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","year":2010,"id":25025,"datarank":1.2236388398707292,"base_score":2.639057329615259,"endowment":2.639057329615259,"self_citation_contribution":0.3958585994422889,"citation_network_contribution":0.8277802404284402,"self_endowment_contribution":0.3958585994422889,"citer_contribution":0.8277802404284402,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":13,"citer_count":10,"citers_with_citation_signal":9,"citers_with_endowment":9,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":null,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":false,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":null,"fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":148398,"name":"Saeed Zaman","orcid":"0000-0001-8323-9153","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":148397,"name":"Murat Tasci","orcid":"0000-0003-0619-6203","position":0,"is_corresponding":false}],"reference_count":0,"raw_metadata":{"has_enrichment":true,"base_score":2.639057329615259,"endowment":2.639057329615259,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"views":0,"has_version_chain":false,"is_dataset":false,"is_oa":false,"pmid":"18998881","pmcid":null,"openalex_id":"https://openalex.org/W1584979677","authors":[],"funders":[],"total_grants":0,"fwci":7.3353,"citation_percentile":0.96554289,"influential_citations":2,"citation_trend":[{"year":2012,"count":3},{"year":2013,"count":2},{"year":2014,"count":2},{"year":2016,"count":1},{"year":2018,"count":1},{"year":2019,"count":1},{"year":2021,"count":1}],"oa_status":"gold","license":"cc-by-nc","oa_locations":[{"url":"https://www.clevelandfed.org/~/media/content/newsroom and events/publications/economic commentary/2010/ec 201011 unemployment after the recession/ec 201011 unemployment after the recession a new natural rate pdf.pdf","host_type":"journal"},{"url":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201011","host_type":"GOLD"},{"url":"https://www.clevelandfed.org/~/media/content/newsroom and events/publications/economic commentary/2010/ec 201011 unemployment after the recession/ec 201011 unemployment after the recession a new natural rate pdf.pdf","host_type":"publisher"},{"url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.357.3159","host_type":""}],"fields_of_study":["Labor market dynamics and wage inequality","Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","Economic Theory and Policy","Economics"],"mesh_terms":[],"keywords":["Natural rate of unemployment","Unemployment","Economics","Recession","Great recession","Unemployment rate","Natural (archaeology)","Full employment","Labour economics","Misery index","Keynesian economics","Macroeconomics","Geography"],"sdg_mappings":[{"sdg_number":0,"sdg_label":"Decent work and economic growth"}],"linked_datasets":[],"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"database_accessions":[],"source":"live","citation_network_status":"fetched"},"created_at":"2026-06-07T23:53:37.181161Z","pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}