{"doi":"10.17615/nyqb-dj73","title":"Model‐Based Prediction of Irinotecan‐Induced Grade 4 Neutropenia in Cancer Patients: Influence of Incorporating Germline Genetic Factors in the Model","abstract":"Neutropenia is the major dose-limiting toxicity of irinotecan-based therapy. The objective of this study was to assess whether inclusion of germline genetic variants into a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model can improve prediction of irinotecan-induced grade 4 neutropenia and identify novel variants of clinical value. A semimechanistic population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model was used to predict neutrophil response over time in 197 patients receiving irinotecan. Covariate analysis was performed for demographic/clinical factors and 4,781 genetic variants in 84 drug response- and toxicity-related genes to identify covariates associated with neutrophil response. We evaluated the predictive value of the model for grade 4 neutropenia reflecting different clinical scenarios of available data on identified demographic/clinical covariates, baseline and post-treatment absolute neutrophil counts (ANCs), individual pharmacokinetics, and germline genetic variation. Adding 8 genetic identified covariates (rs10929302 (UGT1A1), rs1042482 (DPYD), rs2859101 (HLA-DQB3), rs61754806 (NR3C1), rs9266271 (HLA-B), rs7294 (VKORC1), rs1051713 (ALOX5), and ABCB1 rare variant burden) to a model using only baseline ANCs improved prediction of irinotecan-induced grade 4 neutropenia from area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 50-64% (95% confidence interval (CI), 54-74%). Individual pharmacokinetics further improved the prediction to 74% (95% CI, 64-84%). When weekly ANC was available, the identified covariates and individual pharmacokinetics yielded no additional contribution to the prediction. The model including only ANCs at baseline and at week 1 achieved an AUC-ROC of 78% (95% CI, 69-88%). Germline DNA genetic variants may contribute to the prediction of irinotecan-induced grade 4 neutropenia when incorporated into a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model. This approach is generalizable to drugs that induce neutropenia and ultimately allows for personalized intervention to enhance patient safety.","journal":"UNC Libraries","year":2025,"id":577658,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":0,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9424,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2025-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":350710,"name":"Alan Forrest","orcid":"0000-0003-2752-4819","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":485052,"name":"Robert R. Bies","orcid":"0000-0003-3818-2252","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":629122,"name":"Ron H. N. van Schaik","orcid":null,"position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":591984,"name":"Tim Wiltshire","orcid":"0000-0001-5960-4034","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":958681,"name":"Ron H.J. Mathijssen","orcid":"0000-0001-5667-5697","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1487179,"name":"Spinel Karas","orcid":"0000-0002-1381-4623","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":436460,"name":"Federico Innocenti","orcid":"0000-0001-9247-979X","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":0,"raw_metadata":{"citation_network_status":"fetched"},"created_at":"2026-07-19T02:58:16.148027Z","pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}