{"doi":"10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011832","title":"Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study","abstract":"Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of susceptibility and infectivity by person-type. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is usually the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we estimate age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates using data from a prospective household-based study in the Netherlands. A total of 307 households containing 1,209 persons were included from August 2020 until March 2021. Follow-up of households took place between August 2020 and August 2021 with maximal follow-up per household mostly limited to 161 days. Almost 1 out of 5 households (59/307) had evidence of an introduction of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates in our study population with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. Best fitting transmission models included increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses indicate that vaccination of adults can strongly reduce household infection attack rates and that adding adolescent vaccination offers limited added benefit.","journal":"PLoS Computational Biology","year":2024,"id":457113,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":5,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9461,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2024-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":434151,"name":"Christiaan H. van Dorp","orcid":"0000-0002-7504-9947","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1187067,"name":"Ilse Westerhof","orcid":"0000-0001-7693-6137","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":279629,"name":"Vincent W. V. Jaddoe","orcid":"0000-0003-2939-0041","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1187068,"name":"Valerie D Heuvelman","orcid":"0000-0002-0962-4333","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":340441,"name":"Liesbeth Duijts","orcid":"0000-0001-6731-9452","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1187069,"name":"Elandri Fourie","orcid":"0009-0005-3774-6097","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1187462,"name":"Judith Sluiter-Post","orcid":null,"position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1187070,"name":"Marlies A. van Houten","orcid":"0000-0002-5942-8082","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":863071,"name":"Paul Badoux","orcid":"0000-0001-7185-8205","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1187071,"name":"Sjoerd M. Euser","orcid":"0000-0002-2558-3076","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":863070,"name":"Bjorn L. Herpers","orcid":"0000-0003-1632-8302","position":11,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":412067,"name":"Dirk Eggink","orcid":"0000-0002-4248-6008","position":12,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1187072,"name":"Marieke L. A. de Hoog","orcid":"0000-0002-7406-0909","position":13,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1187463,"name":"Trisja T Boom","orcid":null,"position":14,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":839560,"name":"Joanne Wildenbeest","orcid":"0000-0003-3661-551X","position":15,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1020784,"name":"Louis Bont","orcid":"0000-0003-3099-4475","position":16,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":558546,"name":"Ganna Rozhnova","orcid":"0000-0002-6725-7359","position":17,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":88037,"name":"Marc J. M. Bonten","orcid":"0000-0002-9095-9201","position":18,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":558549,"name":"Mirjam Kretzschmar","orcid":"0000-0002-4394-7697","position":19,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":558547,"name":"Patricia Bruijning‐Verhagen","orcid":"0000-0003-4105-9669","position":20,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":474543,"name":"Michiel van Boven","orcid":"0000-0002-0841-2400","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":42,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T02:03:37.136946Z","pmid":"38285727","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}