{"doi":"10.1289/ehp12080","title":"Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050","abstract":"BACKGROUND: Climate change scenarios illustrate various pathways in terms of global warming ranging from \"sustainable development\" (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1-1.9), the best-case scenario, to 'fossil-fueled development' (SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario. OBJECTIVES: We examined the extent to which increase in daily average urban summer temperature is associated with future cause-specific mortality and projected heat-related mortality burden for the current warming trend and these two scenarios. METHODS: . We examined associations of the summer heat index with risk of death by cause for all participants adjusting for a wide range of individual-level covariates and in subsidiary analyses using case-crossover design, computed the related period population attributable fraction (PAF), and projected change in PAF from summers 2000-2018 compared with those in 2030-2050. RESULTS: (95% CI: 0.96, 1.36), a finding replicated in case-crossover analysis. According to projections for 2030-2050, PAF of summertime cardiovascular mortality attributable to high heat will be 4.4% (1.8%-7.3%) under the sustainable development scenario, but 7.6% (3.2%-12.3%) under the fossil-fueled development scenario. In the six cities, the estimated annual number of summertime heat-related cardiovascular deaths under the two scenarios will be 174 and 298 for a total population of 1,759,468 people. DISCUSSION: times greater if future climate change is driven by fossil fuels rather than sustainable development. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12080.","journal":"Environmental Health Perspectives","year":2023,"id":329120,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":21,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9333,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2023-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":108676,"name":"G. David Batty","orcid":"0000-0003-1822-5753","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":108677,"name":"Jaana Pentti","orcid":null,"position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1051739,"name":"Juuso Suomi","orcid":"0000-0002-6970-2436","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":108680,"name":"Solja T. Nyberg","orcid":"0000-0001-5181-2402","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1051740,"name":"Joonas Merikanto","orcid":"0000-0002-1145-2569","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1051741,"name":"Kalle Nordling","orcid":"0000-0003-1824-9659","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":638343,"name":"Jenni Ervasti","orcid":"0000-0001-9113-2428","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":108681,"name":"Sakari Suominen","orcid":"0000-0001-6648-603X","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1051742,"name":"Antti‐Ilari Partanen","orcid":"0000-0002-0883-8161","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":108683,"name":"Sari Stenholm","orcid":"0000-0001-7560-0930","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1051743,"name":"Jukka Käyhkö","orcid":"0000-0002-3842-7355","position":11,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":108689,"name":"Jussi Vahtera","orcid":"0000-0002-6036-061X","position":12,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":108675,"name":"Mika Kivimäki","orcid":"0000-0002-4699-5627","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":114,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T01:09:01.509601Z","pmid":"38150315","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}