{"doi":"10.1214/22-sts861","title":"Learning and Predicting from Dynamic Models for COVID-19 Patient Monitoring","abstract":"COVID-19 has challenged health systems to learn how to learn. This paper describes the context, methods and challenges for learning to improve COVID-19 care at one academic health center. Challenges to learning include: (1) choosing a right clinical target; (2) designing methods for accurate predictions by borrowing strength from prior patients' experiences; (3) communicating the methodology to clinicians so they understand and trust it; (4) communicating the predictions to the patient at the moment of clinical decision; and (5) continuously evaluating and revising the methods so they adapt to changing patients and clinical demands. To illustrate these challenges, this paper contrasts two statistical modeling approaches - prospective longitudinal models in common use and retrospective analogues complementary in the COVID-19 context - for predicting future biomarker trajectories and major clinical events. The methods are applied to and validated on a cohort of 1,678 patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 during the early months of the pandemic. We emphasize graphical tools to promote physician learning and inform clinical decision making.","journal":"Statistical Science","year":2022,"id":288010,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":2,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9538,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2022-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":645017,"name":"Mary G. Bowring","orcid":"0000-0002-7299-7730","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":343704,"name":"Antony Rosen","orcid":"0000-0002-8374-4763","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":106955,"name":"Brian T. Garibaldi","orcid":"0000-0001-8632-5567","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":6679,"name":"Scott L. Zeger","orcid":"0000-0001-8907-1603","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":336581,"name":"Akihiko Nishimura","orcid":"0000-0002-6932-2513","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":480235,"name":"Zitong Wang","orcid":null,"position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":45,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T00:30:11.069895Z","pmid":"37213435","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}