{"doi":"10.1200/jco.21.01785","title":"Absolute Risk of Oropharyngeal Cancer After an HPV16-E6 Serology Test and Potential Implications for Screening: Results From the Human Papillomavirus Cancer Cohort Consortium","abstract":"PURPOSE: Seropositivity for the HPV16-E6 oncoprotein is a promising marker for early detection of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), but the absolute risk of OPC after a positive or negative test is unknown. METHODS: We constructed an OPC risk prediction model that integrates (1) relative odds of OPC for HPV16-E6 serostatus and cigarette smoking from the human papillomavirus (HPV) Cancer Cohort Consortium (HPVC3), (2) US population risk factor data from the National Health Interview Survey, and (3) US sex-specific population rates of OPC and mortality. RESULTS: The nine HPVC3 cohorts included 365 participants with OPC with up to 10 years between blood draw and diagnosis and 5,794 controls. The estimated 10-year OPC risk for HPV16-E6 seropositive males at age 50 years was 17.4% (95% CI, 12.4 to 28.6) and at age 60 years was 27.1% (95% CI, 19.2 to 45.4). Corresponding 5-year risk estimates were 7.3% and 14.4%, respectively. For HPV16-E6 seropositive females, 10-year risk estimates were 3.6% (95% CI, 2.5 to 5.9) at age 50 years and 5.5% (95% CI, 3.8 to 9.2) at age 60 years and 5-year risk estimates were 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Over 30 years, after a seropositive result at age 50 years, an estimated 49.9% of males and 13.3% of females would develop OPC. By contrast, 10-year risks among HPV16-E6 seronegative people were very low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.25% depending on age, sex, and smoking status. CONCLUSION: We estimate that a substantial proportion of HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals will develop OPC, with 10-year risks of 17%-27% for males and 4%-6% for females age 50-60 years in the United States. This high level of risk may warrant periodic, minimally invasive surveillance after a positive HPV16-E6 serology test, particularly for males in high-incidence regions. However, an appropriate clinical protocol for surveillance remains to be established.","journal":"Journal of Clinical Oncology","year":2022,"id":239285,"datarank":1.1494885319442123,"base_score":3.9318256327243257,"endowment":3.9318256327243257,"self_citation_contribution":0.5897738449086489,"citation_network_contribution":0.5597146870355634,"self_endowment_contribution":0.5897738449086489,"citer_contribution":0.5597146870355634,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":50,"citer_count":36,"citers_with_citation_signal":20,"citers_with_endowment":20,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9556,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2022-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":484761,"name":"Aida Ferreiro-Iglesias","orcid":"0000-0002-1458-7936","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":390102,"name":"Tim Waterboer","orcid":"0000-0002-0616-6963","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":558766,"name":"Nicole Brenner","orcid":"0000-0002-7690-4925","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":578472,"name":"Mari Nygård","orcid":"0000-0002-4100-4855","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":411899,"name":"Noemi Bender","orcid":"0000-0003-2542-9949","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":578905,"name":"Lea Schroeder","orcid":null,"position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":265756,"name":"Allan Hildesheim","orcid":"0000-0003-0257-2363","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":405132,"name":"Michael Pawlita","orcid":"0000-0002-4720-8306","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":315093,"name":"Gypsyamber DʼSouza","orcid":"0000-0002-0575-7948","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":251141,"name":"Kala Visvanathan","orcid":"0000-0002-0582-8005","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":178242,"name":"Hilde Langseth","orcid":"0000-0002-9446-4855","position":11,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":609804,"name":"Nicolas F. 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