{"doi":"10.1161/jaha.120.017735","title":"LVS‐HARMED Risk Score for Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Who Present to the Emergency Department: Data from a World‐Wide Registry","abstract":"Background Heart failure (HF) is a common complication to atrial fibrillation (AF), leading to rehospitalization and death. Early identification of patients with AF at risk for HF might improve outcomes. We aimed to derive a score to predict 1-year risk of new-onset HF after an emergency department (ED) visit with AF. Methods and Results The RE-LY AF (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy) registry enrolled patients with AF presenting to an ED in 47 countries, and followed them for a year. The end point was HF hospitalization and/or HF death. Among 15 400 ED patients, 9765 had no prior HF (mean age, 64.9±14.9 years). Within 1 year, new-onset HF developed in 6.8% of patients, of whom 21% died of HF. Independent predictors of HF included left ventricular hypertrophy (odds ratio [OR], 1.47; 95% CI, 1.19-1.82), valvular heart disease (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.18-2.04), smoking (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.12-1.78), height (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.95 per 3 cm), age (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07-1.15 per 5 years), rheumatic heart disease (OR, 1.77, 95% CI, 1.24-2.51), prior myocardial infarction (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.45-2.36), remaining in AF at ED discharge (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.46-2.36), and diabetes (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.09-1.64). A continuous risk prediction score (LVS-HARMED [left ventricular, valvular heart disease, smoking or other tobacco use, height, age, rheumatic heart disease, myocardial infarction, emergency department discharge rhythm, and diabetes]) had good discrimination (C statistic, 0.735; 95% CI, 0.716-0.755). Validation was conducted internally using bootstrapping (optimism-corrected C statistic, 0.705) and externally (C statistic, 0.699). The 1-year incidence of HF hospitalization and/or HF death across quartile groups of the score was 1.1%, 4.5%, 6.9%, and 14.4%, respectively. LVS-HARMED also predicted incident stroke (C statistic, 0.753; 95% CI, 0.728-0.778). Conclusions The LVS-HARMED score predicts new-onset HF after an ED visit for AF. Preventative strategies should be considered in patients with high LVS-HARMED HF risk.","journal":"Journal of the American Heart Association","year":2021,"id":199413,"datarank":0.3453877639491069,"base_score":2.302585092994046,"endowment":2.302585092994046,"self_citation_contribution":0.3453877639491069,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.3453877639491069,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":9,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9036,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2021-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":56138,"name":"Jonas Oldgren","orcid":"0000-0002-9969-3921","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":775894,"name":"Tyler W. 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Connolly","orcid":"0000-0002-7377-335X","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":274255,"name":"Lizhen Xu","orcid":"0000-0003-4921-7238","position":11,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":654230,"name":"Juliet Nakamya","orcid":null,"position":12,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":70464,"name":"David Conen","orcid":"0000-0002-2459-5251","position":13,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":455174,"name":"Shrikant I. Bangdiwala","orcid":"0000-0002-3111-0689","position":14,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":56136,"name":"Salim Yusuf","orcid":"0000-0003-4776-5601","position":15,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":649866,"name":"Jeff S. 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