{"doi":"10.1111/add.16024","title":"Behavioral stability of alcohol consumption and socio‐demographic correlates of change among a nationally representative cohort of US adults","abstract":"AIMS: To estimate the probability of transitioning between different categories of alcohol use (drinking states) among a nationally representative cohort of United States (US) adults and to identify the effects of socio-demographic characteristics on those transitions. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Secondary analysis of data from the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC), a prospective cohort study conducted in 2001-02 and 2004-05; a US nation-wide, population-based study. Participants included 34 165 adults (mean age = 45.1 years, standard deviation = 17.3; 52% women). MEASUREMENTS: Alcohol use was self-reported and categorized based on the grams consumed per day: (1) non-drinker (no drinks in past 12 months), (2) category I (women = ≤ 20; men = ≤ 40), (3) category II (women = 21-40; men = 41-60) and (4) category III (women = ≥ 41; men = ≥ 61). Multi-state Markov models estimated the probability of transitioning between drinking states, conditioned on age, sex, race/ethnicity and educational attainment. Analyses were repeated with alcohol use categorized based on the frequency of heavy episodic drinking. FINDINGS: The highest transition probabilities were observed for staying in the same state; after 1 year, the probability of remaining in the same state was 90.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 89.7%, 90.5%] for non-drinkers, 90.2% (95% CI = 89.9%, 90.5%) for category I, 31.8% (95% CI = 29.7, 33.9%) category II and 52.2% (95% CI = 46.0, 58.5%) for category III. Women, older adults, and non-Hispanic Other adults were less likely to transition between drinking states, including transitions to lower use. Adults with lower educational attainment were more likely to transition between drinking states; however, they were also less likely to transition out of the 'weekly HED' category. Black adults were more likely to transition into or stay in higher use categories, whereas Hispanic/Latinx adults were largely similar to White adults. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of alcohol transition probabilities, some demographic subgroups appeared more likely to transition into or persist in higher alcohol consumption states.","journal":"Addiction","year":2022,"id":273058,"datarank":0.5129609679606257,"base_score":2.4849066497880004,"endowment":2.4849066497880004,"self_citation_contribution":0.37273599746820013,"citation_network_contribution":0.14022497049242555,"self_endowment_contribution":0.37273599746820013,"citer_contribution":0.14022497049242555,"corpus_percentile":62.42747737294036,"corpus_rank":4858,"citation_count":11,"citer_count":9,"citers_with_citation_signal":5,"citers_with_endowment":5,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":true,"is_dataset_confidence":0.7312,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2022-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":392911,"name":"Charlotte Buckley","orcid":"0000-0002-8430-0347","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":533074,"name":"Nina Mulia","orcid":"0000-0002-5847-9697","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":392915,"name":"Robin C. Purshouse","orcid":"0000-0001-5880-1925","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":653995,"name":"Aurélie M. Lasserre","orcid":"0000-0003-3925-6663","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":512291,"name":"William C. Kerr","orcid":"0000-0001-6612-9200","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":244607,"name":"Jürgen Rehm","orcid":"0000-0001-5665-0385","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":392914,"name":"Charlotte Probst","orcid":"0000-0003-4360-697X","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":856403,"name":"Klajdi Puka","orcid":"0000-0001-7763-988X","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":39,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T00:27:52.048702Z","pmid":"35975709","pmcid":"PMC9722571","fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}