{"doi":"10.1101/2023.09.14.23295550","title":"Optimal environmental testing frequency for outbreak surveillance","abstract":"Abstract Public health surveillance for pathogens presents an optimization problem: we require enough sampling to identify intervention-triggering shifts in pathogen epidemiology, such as new introductions or sudden increases in prevalence, but not so much that costs due to surveillance itself outweigh those from pathogen-associated illness. To determine this optimal sampling frequency, we developed a general mathematical model for the introduction of a new pathogen that, once introduced, increases in prevalence exponentially. Given the relative cost of infection vs . sampling, we derived equations for the expected combined cost of disease burden and surveillance given a sampling frequency and thus the sampling frequency for which the expected total cost is lowest.","journal":"medRxiv","year":2023,"id":400773,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":1,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9532,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2023-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":1177209,"name":"Kirstin Roster","orcid":"0000-0003-3468-2014","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":577425,"name":"Stephen M. Kissler","orcid":"0000-0001-6000-8387","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":106022,"name":"Marc Lipsitch","orcid":"0000-0003-1504-9213","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":41032,"name":"Yonatan H. Grad","orcid":"0000-0001-5646-1314","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1177208,"name":"Jason Olejarz","orcid":"0000-0003-3571-7709","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":44,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T01:20:04.010538Z","pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}