{"doi":"10.1101/2023.09.10.23295251","title":"DCM-PROGRESS: predicting end-stage heart failure in non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy patients","abstract":"Aims: Patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) are at considerable risk for end-stage heart failure (HF), requiring close monitoring to identify early signs of disease. We aimed to develop a model to predict the 5-years risk of end-stage HF, allowing for tailored patient monitoring and management. Methods and results: Derivation data were available from a Dutch cohort of 293 DCM patients, with external validation available from a Czech Republic cohort of 235 DCM patients. Candidate predictors spanned patient and family histories, ECG and echocardiogram measurements, and biochemistry. End-stage HF was defined as a composite of death, heart transplantation, or implantation of a ventricular assist device. Lasso and sigmoid kernel support vector machine (SVM) algorithms were trained using cross-validation. During follow-up 65 (22%) of Dutch DCM patients developed end-stage HF, with 27 (11%) cases in the Czech cohort. Out of the two considered models, the lasso model (retaining NYHA class, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, height, R-axis, and TAPSE as predictors) reached the highest discriminative performance (testing c-statistic of 0.85, 95%CI 0.58; 0.94), which was confirmed in the external validation cohort (c-statistic of 0.75, 95%CI 0.61; 0.82), compared to a c-statistic of 0.69 for the MAGGIC score. Both the MAGGIC score and the DCM-PROGRESS model slightly over-estimated the true risk, but were otherwise appropriately calibrated. Conclusion: We developed a highly discriminative risk-prediction model for end-stage HF in DCM patients. The model was validated in two countries, suggesting the model can meaningfully improve clinical decision-making.","journal":"medRxiv","year":2023,"id":400710,"datarank":0.11037615429568695,"base_score":0.6931471805599453,"endowment":0.6931471805599453,"self_citation_contribution":0.10397207708399181,"citation_network_contribution":0.006404077211695147,"self_endowment_contribution":0.10397207708399181,"citer_contribution":0.006404077211695147,"corpus_percentile":27.701709600061886,"corpus_rank":9347,"citation_count":1,"citer_count":1,"citers_with_citation_signal":1,"citers_with_endowment":1,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":true,"is_dataset_confidence":0.728,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2023-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":1177154,"name":"Pavel Leinveber","orcid":"0000-0001-7267-4408","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1177155,"name":"Roman Panovský","orcid":"0000-0001-8489-132X","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1177156,"name":"L. Soukup","orcid":"0000-0003-1517-687X","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1177465,"name":"Peter Machac","orcid":null,"position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":708883,"name":"Rutger R van de Leur","orcid":"0000-0002-4779-5870","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1177157,"name":"Arjan Sammani","orcid":"0000-0002-5557-9342","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":86998,"name":"Karim Lekadir","orcid":"0000-0002-9456-1612","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1177466,"name":"Anneline ter Riele","orcid":null,"position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":21948,"name":"Folkert W. Asselbergs","orcid":"0000-0002-1692-8669","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":991698,"name":"Machteld Boonstra","orcid":"0000-0001-7550-0489","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":590064,"name":"Amand F. Schmidt","orcid":"0000-0003-1327-0424","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":22,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T01:20:04.010538Z","pmid":"37745419","pmcid":"PMC10516079","fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}