{"doi":"10.1101/2023.01.06.23284260","title":"Wastewater and seroprevalence for pandemic preparedness: variant analysis, vaccination effect, and hospitalization forecasting for SARS-CoV-2, in Jefferson County, Kentucky","abstract":"Abstract Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale SARS-CoV-2 vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021–August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible ( S ), vaccinated ( V ), variant-specific infected ( I 1 and I 2 ), recovered ( R ), and seropositive ( T ) model ( SVI 2 RT ) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. The 64% county vaccination rate translated into about 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence was a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which corresponded to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration had the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. Our study underscores the importance of continued environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.","journal":"medRxiv","year":2023,"id":395617,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":2,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.8973,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2023-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":401572,"name":"Grzegorz A. Rempała","orcid":"0000-0002-6307-4555","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":758762,"name":"Boseung Choi","orcid":"0000-0001-7512-118X","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":802114,"name":"J. Michael Brick","orcid":"0000-0003-3490-8925","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":929899,"name":"Alok R. Amraotkar","orcid":"0000-0001-7506-8673","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":520726,"name":"Rachel J. Keith","orcid":"0000-0003-3877-0636","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":250188,"name":"Eric C. Rouchka","orcid":"0000-0003-3487-6572","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":294629,"name":"Julia H. Chariker","orcid":"0000-0001-6805-7220","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":345003,"name":"Kenneth E. Palmer","orcid":"0000-0002-2811-1111","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":625627,"name":"Ted Smith","orcid":"0000-0003-2804-4294","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":355675,"name":"Aruni Bhatnagar","orcid":"0000-0001-6818-0384","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":625628,"name":"Rochelle H. Holm","orcid":"0000-0001-8849-1390","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":42,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T01:19:22.857556Z","pmid":"36656780","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}