{"doi":"10.1101/2022.11.19.22282525","title":"Changes in population immunity against infection and severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the United States between December 2021 and November 2022","abstract":"Importance: While a substantial fraction of the US population was infected with SARS-CoV-2 during December 2021 - February 2022, the subsequent evolution of population immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants reflects the competing influences of waning protection over time and acquisition or restoration of immunity through additional infections and vaccinations. Objective: To estimate changes in population immunity against infection and severe disease due to circulating SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the United States from December 2021 to November 2022, and to quantify the protection against a potential 2022-2023 winter SARS-CoV-2 wave. Design setting participants: Bayesian evidence synthesis of reported COVID-19 data (diagnoses, hospitalizations), vaccinations, and waning patterns for vaccine- and infection-acquired immunity, using a mathematical model of COVID-19 natural history. Main Outcomes and Measures: Population immunity against infection and severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the United States, by location (national, state, county) and week. Results: By November 9, 2022, 94% (95% CrI, 79%-99%) of the US population were estimated to have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 at least once. Combined with vaccination, 97% (95%-99%) were estimated to have some prior immunological exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Between December 1, 2021 and November 9, 2022, protection against a new Omicron infection rose from 22% (21%-23%) to 63% (51%-75%) nationally, and protection against an Omicron infection leading to severe disease increased from 61% (59%-64%) to 89% (83%-92%). Increasing first booster uptake to 55% in all states (current US coverage: 34%) and second booster uptake to 22% (current US coverage: 11%) would increase protection against infection by 4.5 percentage points (2.4-7.2) and protection against severe disease by 1.1 percentage points (1.0-1.5). Conclusions and Relevance: Effective protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease in November 2022 was substantially higher than in December 2021. Despite this high level of protection, a more transmissible or immune evading (sub)variant, changes in behavior, or ongoing waning of immunity could lead to a new SARS-CoV-2 wave. Key points: As most of the newly acquired immunity has been accumulated in the December 2021-February 2022 Omicron wave, risk of reinfection and subsequent severe disease remains present at the beginning of the 2022-2023 winter, despite high levels of protection.","journal":"medRxiv","year":2022,"id":296673,"datarank":0.47032413238937254,"base_score":3.1354942159291497,"endowment":3.1354942159291497,"self_citation_contribution":0.47032413238937254,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.47032413238937254,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":22,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9552,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2022-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":552195,"name":"Melanie H. Chitwood","orcid":"0000-0002-9289-5694","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":226284,"name":"Ted Cohen","orcid":"0000-0002-8091-7198","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":226287,"name":"Virginia E. Pitzer","orcid":"0000-0003-1015-2289","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":226288,"name":"Marcus Russi","orcid":"0000-0002-7106-068X","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":983562,"name":"Nicole A. Swartwood","orcid":"0000-0003-4116-9243","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":22312,"name":"Joshua A. Salomon","orcid":"0000-0003-3929-5515","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":308322,"name":"Nicolas A. Menzies","orcid":"0000-0002-2571-016X","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":983561,"name":"Fayette Klaassen","orcid":"0000-0002-9488-2571","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":24,"raw_metadata":{"citation_network_status":"fetched"},"created_at":"2026-07-19T00:31:16.555318Z","pmid":"36451882","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}