{"doi":"10.1101/2021.09.09.21263359","title":"A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia","abstract":"Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g. SARS, MERS, SADS and COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this \"hidden\" spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive biologically realistic range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human SARSr-CoV seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that ∼400,000 people (median: ∼50,000) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in South and Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.","journal":"medRxiv","year":2021,"id":213279,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":27,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9544,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2021-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":231562,"name":"Hongying Li","orcid":"0000-0002-5089-1134","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":246081,"name":"Kendra L. Phelps","orcid":"0000-0002-3120-4802","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":231565,"name":"Carlos Zambrana‐Torrelio","orcid":"0000-0002-5614-7496","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":227144,"name":"Lin‐Fa Wang","orcid":"0000-0003-2752-0535","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":225425,"name":"Kevin J. Olival","orcid":"0000-0003-3211-1875","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":49949,"name":"Peter Daszak","orcid":"0000-0002-2046-5695","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":347535,"name":"Cecilia A. Sánchez","orcid":"0000-0002-1141-6816","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":85,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-18T23:52:36.886828Z","pmid":"34545371","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}