{"doi":"10.1101/2020.11.03.20225409","title":"COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support","abstract":"Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.","journal":"medRxiv","year":2020,"id":118774,"datarank":1.6103412089170837,"base_score":3.7612001156935624,"endowment":3.7612001156935624,"self_citation_contribution":0.5641800173540344,"citation_network_contribution":1.0461611915630493,"self_endowment_contribution":0.5641800173540344,"citer_contribution":1.0461611915630493,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":42,"citer_count":23,"citers_with_citation_signal":23,"citers_with_endowment":23,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9485,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2020-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":552069,"name":"Rebecca K. 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