{"doi":"10.1101/2020.10.06.20208132","title":"BayesSMILES: Bayesian Segmentation Modeling for Longitudinal Epidemiological Studies","abstract":"The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic. To characterize its disease transmissibility, we propose a Bayesian change point detection model using daily actively infectious cases. Our model builds on a Bayesian Poisson segmented regression model that can 1) capture the epidemiological dynamics under the changing conditions caused by external or internal factors; 2) provide uncertainty estimates of both the number and locations of change points; and 3) adjust any explanatory time-varying covariates. Our model can be used to evaluate public health interventions, identify latent events associated with spreading rates, and yield better short-term forecasts.","journal":"medRxiv","year":2020,"id":121333,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":7,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9533,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2020-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":560660,"name":"Quan Zhou","orcid":"0000-0003-3190-3598","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":14650,"name":"Xiaowei Zhan","orcid":"0000-0002-6249-7193","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":352535,"name":"Qiwei Li","orcid":"0000-0002-1020-3050","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":301025,"name":"Shuang Jiang","orcid":"0000-0002-4675-7143","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":53,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-18T23:14:42.734024Z","pmid":"33469604","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}