{"doi":"10.1101/2020.05.02.20074104","title":"Predicting re-emergence times of dengue epidemics at low reproductive numbers: DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro, 1986-1990","abstract":"Abstract Predicting arbovirus re-emergence remains challenging in regions with limited off-season transmission and intermittent epidemics. Current mathematical models treat the depletion and replenishment of susceptible (non-immune) hosts as the principal drivers of re-emergence, based on established understanding of highly transmissible childhood diseases with frequent epidemics. We extend an analytical approach to determine the number of ‘skip’ years preceding re-emergence for diseases with continuous seasonal transmission, population growth and under-reporting. Re-emergence times are shown to be highly sensitive to small changes in low R 0 (secondary cases produced from a primary infection in a fully susceptible population). We then fit a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model to observed case data for the emergence of dengue serotype DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro. This aggregated city-level model substantially over-estimates observed re-emergence times either in terms of skips or outbreak probability under forward simulation. The inability of susceptible depletion and replenishment to explain re-emergence under ‘well-mixed’ conditions at a city-wide scale demonstrates a key limitation of SIR aggregated models including those applied to other arboviruses. The predictive uncertainty and high skip sensitivity to epidemiological parameters suggest a need to investigate the relevant spatial scales of susceptible depletion and the scaling of microscale transmission dynamics to formulate simpler models that apply at coarse resolutions.","journal":"medRxiv","year":2020,"id":129476,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":0,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9444,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2020-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":581016,"name":"Victoria Romeo-Aznar","orcid":"0000-0002-7458-2782","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":343759,"name":"Edward L. Ionides","orcid":"0000-0002-4190-0174","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":581017,"name":"Cláudia Torres Codeço","orcid":"0000-0003-1174-178X","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":581018,"name":"Mercedes Pascual","orcid":"0000-0003-3575-7233","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":581015,"name":"Rahul Subramanian","orcid":"0000-0002-1131-9952","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":63,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-18T23:15:49.682497Z","pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}