{"doi":"10.1101/2020.03.16.20037036","title":"Transmissibility of 2019 Novel Coronavirus: zoonotic vs. human to human transmission, China, 2019-2020","abstract":"Abstract Objectives The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan has rapidly spread throughout China. While the origin of the outbreak remains uncertain, accumulating evidence links a wet market in Wuhan for the early spread of 2019-nCoV. Similarly, the influence of the marketplace on the early transmission dynamics is yet to be investigated. Methods Using the daily series of 2019-nCov incidenceincluding contact history with the market, we have conducted quantitative modeling analyses to estimate the reproduction numbers ( R ) for the market-to-human and human-to-human transmission together with the reporting probability and the early effects of public health interventions. Results Our mean R estimates for China in 2019-2020 are estimated at 0.37 (95%CrI: 0.02-1.78) for market-to-human transmission, and 3.87 (95%CrI: 3.18-4.78) for human-to-human transmission, respectively. Moreover we estimated that the reporting rate cases stemming from market-to-human transmission was 3-31 fold higher than that for cases stemming from human-to-human transmission, suggesting that contact history with the wet market played a key role in identifying 2019-nCov cases. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the proportions of asymptomatic and subclinical patients constitute a substantial component of the epidemic’s magnitude. Findings suggest that the development of rapid diagnostic tests could help bring the epidemic more rapidly under control.","journal":"medRxiv","year":2020,"id":122635,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":4,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9101,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2020-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":104302,"name":"Katsushi Kagaya","orcid":"0000-0003-3001-7690","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":15756,"name":"Gerardo Chowell","orcid":"0000-0003-2194-2251","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":104301,"name":"Kenji Mizumoto","orcid":"0000-0002-2748-6560","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":15,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-18T23:14:55.385653Z","pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}