{"doi":"10.1101/2020.02.07.938720","title":"Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents","abstract":"Abstract Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28 – 85% for vectors, 44 – 88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.","journal":"bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)","year":2020,"id":120429,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":10,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9444,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2020-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":230976,"name":"A. Desirée LaBeaud","orcid":"0000-0001-8364-6867","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":56024,"name":"Éric F. Lambin","orcid":"0000-0002-0673-5257","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":533541,"name":"Anna M. Stewart‐Ibarra","orcid":"0000-0002-3383-4672","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":351773,"name":"Bryson Ndenga","orcid":"0000-0002-8445-2885","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":244714,"name":"Francis Mutuku","orcid":"0000-0002-9000-7008","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":244711,"name":"Amy Krystosik","orcid":"0000-0001-7944-8876","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":557704,"name":"Efraín Beltrán Ayala","orcid":"0009-0009-1956-5697","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":557705,"name":"Assaf Anyamba","orcid":"0000-0003-0932-9585","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":557706,"name":"Mercy J. Borbor‐Cordova","orcid":"0000-0002-7418-141X","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":557707,"name":"R. Damoah","orcid":"0000-0003-0756-4362","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":351772,"name":"Elysse N. Grossi-Soyster","orcid":"0000-0002-2719-1973","position":11,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":558377,"name":"Froilán Heras","orcid":null,"position":12,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":351774,"name":"Harun N. Ngugi","orcid":"0000-0002-0077-1775","position":13,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":230974,"name":"Sadie J. Ryan","orcid":"0000-0002-4308-6321","position":14,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":230975,"name":"Melisa M. Shah","orcid":"0000-0002-7277-1547","position":15,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":533542,"name":"Rachel Sippy","orcid":"0000-0003-3617-2093","position":16,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":230973,"name":"Erin A. Mordecai","orcid":"0000-0002-4402-5547","position":17,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":557703,"name":"Jamie M. Caldwell","orcid":"0000-0002-6531-2289","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":92,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-18T23:14:33.640077Z","pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}