{"doi":"10.1098/rspb.2007.1100","title":"Epidemiological consequences of an incursion of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into the British poultry flock","abstract":"<jats:p>Highly pathogenic avian influenza and in particular the H5N1 strain has resulted in the culling of millions of birds and continues to pose a threat to poultry industries worldwide. The recent outbreak of H5N1 in the UK highlights the need for detailed assessment of the consequences of an incursion and of the efficacy of control strategies. Here, we present results from a model of H5N1 propagation within the British poultry industry. We find that although the majority of randomly seeded incursions do not spread beyond the initial infected premises, there is significant potential for widespread infection. The efficacy of the European Union strategy for disease control is evaluated and our simulations emphasize the pivotal role of duck farms in spreading H5N1.</jats:p>","journal":"Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences","year":2008,"id":595675,"datarank":0.6329261557764161,"base_score":4.219507705176107,"endowment":4.219507705176107,"self_citation_contribution":0.6329261557764161,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.6329261557764161,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":67,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":null,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":false,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":null,"fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":1525412,"name":"Roger G Bowers","orcid":null,"position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1525414,"name":"Kenton L Morgan","orcid":null,"position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1525415,"name":"Susan E Robinson","orcid":null,"position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1525417,"name":"Robert M Christley","orcid":null,"position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1525410,"name":"Kieran J Sharkey","orcid":null,"position":0,"is_corresponding":false}],"reference_count":0,"raw_metadata":{"has_enrichment":true,"resolved":true,"title":"Epidemiological consequences of an incursion of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into the British poultry flock","abstract":"<jats:p>Highly pathogenic avian influenza and in particular the H5N1 strain has resulted in the culling of millions of birds and continues to pose a threat to poultry industries worldwide. The recent outbreak of H5N1 in the UK highlights the need for detailed assessment of the consequences of an incursion and of the efficacy of control strategies. Here, we present results from a model of H5N1 propagation within the British poultry industry. We find that although the majority of randomly seeded incursions do not spread beyond the initial infected premises, there is significant potential for widespread infection. The efficacy of the European Union strategy for disease control is evaluated and our simulations emphasize the pivotal role of duck farms in spreading H5N1.</jats:p>","is_dataset_classified":null,"base_score":4.219507705176107,"endowment":4.219507705176107,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"views":0,"has_version_chain":false,"is_dataset":false,"is_oa":false,"pmid":"17956849","pmcid":"PMC2562399","openalex_id":"https://openalex.org/W2099838991","authors":[],"funders":[],"total_grants":0,"fwci":3.6991,"citation_percentile":0.93157055,"influential_citations":0,"citation_trend":[{"year":2012,"count":9},{"year":2013,"count":8},{"year":2014,"count":3},{"year":2015,"count":2},{"year":2017,"count":2},{"year":2018,"count":2},{"year":2019,"count":3},{"year":2020,"count":1},{"year":2021,"count":2},{"year":2022,"count":3},{"year":2023,"count":1},{"year":2024,"count":1},{"year":2025,"count":1},{"year":2026,"count":1}],"oa_status":"green","license":"https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/","oa_locations":[{"url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2562399","host_type":"repository"},{"url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2562399","host_type":"repository"},{"url":"https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2007.1100","host_type":"publisher"},{"url":"https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rspb.2007.1100","host_type":"publisher"},{"url":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1100","host_type":"journal"},{"url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17956849","host_type":"repository"}],"fields_of_study":["Influenza Virus Research Studies","Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology","Viral gastroenteritis research and epidemiology","Animals","Disease Transmission, Infectious","Geography","Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype","Influenza in Birds","Models, Theoretical","Poultry","Poultry Diseases","Time Factors","United Kingdom"],"mesh_terms":["Animals","Influenza in Birds","Geography","United Kingdom","Models, Theoretical","Poultry","Poultry Diseases","Time Factors","Disease Transmission, Infectious","Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype"],"keywords":["Influenza A virus subtype H5N1","Culling","Highly pathogenic","Flock","Outbreak","Poultry farming","European union","Veterinary medicine","Biology","Geography","Virology","Medicine","Business","International trade"],"sdg_mappings":[],"linked_datasets":[],"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"database_accessions":[],"source":"live","citation_network_status":"fetched"},"created_at":"2026-07-27T17:46:03.109764Z","pmid":null,"pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}