{"doi":"10.1093/jme/tjaf047","title":"Spring fever: early spring predicts <i>Ixodes pacificus</i> (Acari: Ixodidae) activity in northwestern California","abstract":"In the far western United States, the bacterial agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, is primarily transmitted to humans by the nymphal stage of the western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus. Predicting nymphal tick abundance would benefit public health but is complicated by the tick's complex multi-year life cycle and data limitations. To address this, we used readily available climate data, a long-term dataset from northwestern California, and time lags based on the tick's life cycle. Our model showed that warmer early spring temperatures during non-drought conditions the year prior predicted higher nymphal tick densities, while hot, dry springs the year prior were linked to earlier peaks in their abundance. Incorporating human-induced climate change projections, we predicted earlier peaks of nymphal tick activity over the next century, with the potential for an initial doubling in questing nymph numbers. This approach provides a valuable tool for public health and offers insights into the changing dynamics of Lyme disease ecology in the far-western US.","journal":"Journal of Medical Entomology","year":2025,"id":565772,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":0,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9323,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2025-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":1469334,"name":"Emily L. Pascoe","orcid":"0000-0003-3493-3485","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1469335,"name":"Zachary A. Barrand","orcid":"0000-0001-9281-7314","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1469333,"name":"Francesca Rubino","orcid":"0000-0001-5571-5298","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":38,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T02:56:32.546082Z","pmid":"40353571","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}