{"doi":"10.1093/jme/tjae001","title":"Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000–2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics","abstract":"The objectives of this study were to compare dengue virus (DENV) cases, deaths, case-fatality ratio [CFR], and meteorological parameters between the first and the recent decades of this century (2000-2010 vs. 2011-2022) and to describe the trends, seasonality, and impact of change of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics of dengue in Bangladesh. For the period 2000-2022, dengue cases and death data from Bangladesh's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare's website, and meteorological data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department were analyzed. A Poisson regression model was performed to identify the impact of meteorological parameters on the monthly dengue cases. A forecast of dengue cases was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Over the past 23 yr, a total of 244,246 dengue cases were reported including 849 deaths (CFR = 0.35%). The mean annual number of dengue cases increased 8 times during the second decade, with 2,216 cases during 2000-2010 vs. 18,321 cases during 2011-2022. The mean annual number of deaths doubled (21 vs. 46), but the overall CFR has decreased by one-third (0.69% vs. 0.23%). Concurrently, the annual mean temperature increased by 0.49 °C, and rainfall decreased by 314 mm with altered precipitation seasonality. Monthly mean temperature (Incidence risk ratio [IRR]: 1.26), first-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.08), and second-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.17) were significantly associated with monthly dengue cases. The increased local temperature and changes in rainfall seasonality might have contributed to the increased dengue cases in Bangladesh.","journal":"Journal of Medical Entomology","year":2024,"id":420355,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":34,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.944,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2024-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":1057537,"name":"Ibrahim Khalil","orcid":"0000-0001-5065-860X","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":537815,"name":"Muhammad Abdul Baker Chowdhury","orcid":"0000-0002-2145-0938","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":898624,"name":"Mahbubur Rahman","orcid":"0000-0001-8577-8281","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1037737,"name":"Md Asaduzzaman","orcid":"0000-0002-8885-6721","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1176435,"name":"Masum Billah","orcid":"0000-0002-5833-2564","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1211267,"name":"Laila Anjuman Banu","orcid":"0000-0003-4409-9009","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1176436,"name":"Mahbub‐Ul Alam","orcid":"0000-0001-6940-364X","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1176437,"name":"Atik Ahsan","orcid":"0000-0003-3673-5028","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1176438,"name":"Tieble Traore","orcid":"0000-0001-5032-3180","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":263037,"name":"Md Jamal Uddin","orcid":"0000-0002-8360-3274","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":414034,"name":"Roberto Galizi","orcid":"0000-0003-3134-7480","position":11,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1059443,"name":"Ilaria Russo","orcid":"0000-0002-2269-7078","position":12,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":85550,"name":"Alimuddin Zumla","orcid":"0000-0002-5111-5735","position":13,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":259403,"name":"Najmul Haider","orcid":"0000-0002-5980-3460","position":14,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":263035,"name":"Mohammad Nayeem Hasan","orcid":"0000-0002-2383-0459","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":70,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T01:57:25.777459Z","pmid":"38253990","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}