{"doi":"10.1093/cid/ciab079","title":"The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States","abstract":"BACKGROUND: Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States. METHODS: We developed an agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, whereas children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection and specified 10% preexisting population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current nonpharmaceutical interventions in the United States. RESULTS: Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.3%-5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4%-9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54%-62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3%-66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2%-68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5%-73.1%), respectively, across the same period. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact.","journal":"Clinical Infectious Diseases","year":2021,"id":145223,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":596,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9352,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2021-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":615514,"name":"Thomas N. Vilches","orcid":"0000-0002-4980-7564","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":615515,"name":"Kevin Zhang","orcid":"0000-0003-1183-5743","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":110256,"name":"Chad R. Wells","orcid":"0000-0003-1370-8350","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":110260,"name":"Affan Shoukat","orcid":"0000-0001-9280-8311","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":110264,"name":"Burton H. Singer","orcid":"0000-0002-5295-5971","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":110263,"name":"Lauren Ancel Meyers","orcid":"0000-0002-5828-8874","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":38212,"name":"Kathleen M. Neuzil","orcid":"0000-0001-9480-2714","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":251735,"name":"Joanne M. Langley","orcid":"0000-0003-3270-7345","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":225894,"name":"Meagan C. Fitzpatrick","orcid":"0000-0002-5248-2668","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":110265,"name":"Alison P. Galvani","orcid":"0000-0002-2059-6716","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":110258,"name":"Seyed M. Moghadas","orcid":"0000-0003-4414-0227","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":50,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-18T23:41:52.374756Z","pmid":"33515252","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}