{"doi":"10.1080/07420528.2020.1746798","title":"Generalizability of a biomathematical model of fatigue’s sleep predictions","abstract":"Introduction: Biomathematical models of fatigue (BMMF) predict fatigue during a work-rest schedule on the basis of sleep-wake histories. In the absence of actual sleep-wake histories, sleep-wake histories are predicted directly from work-rest schedules. The predicted sleep-wake histories are then used to predict fatigue. It remains to be determined whether workers organize their sleep similarly across operations and thus whether sleep predictions generalize.Methods: Officers (n = 173) enrolled in the Buffalo Cardio-Metabolic Occupational Police Stress study were studied. Officers’ sleep-wake behaviors were measured using wrist-actigraphy and predicted using a BMMF (FAID Quantum) parameterized in aviation and rail. Sleepiness (i.e. Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) ratings) was predicted using actual and predicted sleep-wake data. Data were analyzed using sensitivity analyses.Results: During officers’ 16.0 ± 1.9 days of study participation, they worked 8.6 ± 3.1 shifts and primarily worked day shifts and afternoon shifts. Across shifts, 7.0 h ± 1.9 h of actual sleep were obtained in the prior 24 h and associated peak KSS ratings were 5.7 ± 1.3. Across shifts, 7.2 h ± 1.1 h of sleep were predicted in the prior 24 h and associated peak KSS ratings were 5.5 ± 1.2. The minute-by-minute predicted and actual sleep-wake data demonstrated high sensitivity (80.4%). However, sleep was observed at all hours-of-the-day, but sleep was rarely predicted during the daytime hours.Discussion: The sleep-wake behaviors predicted by a BMMF parameterized in aviation and rail demonstrated high sensitivity with police officers’ actual sleep-wake behaviors. Additional night shift data are needed to conclude whether BMMF sleep predictions generalize across operations.","journal":"Chronobiology International","year":2020,"id":86016,"datarank":0.41588830833596724,"base_score":2.772588722239781,"endowment":2.772588722239781,"self_citation_contribution":0.41588830833596724,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.41588830833596724,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":15,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9543,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2020-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":385941,"name":"Desta Fekedulegn","orcid":"0000-0002-1820-4373","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":385942,"name":"Michael E. Andrew","orcid":"0000-0001-8191-3642","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":416040,"name":"Bryan Vila","orcid":"0000-0001-8575-989X","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":416039,"name":"Drew Dawson∥","orcid":"0000-0001-7385-5630","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":385943,"name":"John M. Violanti","orcid":"0000-0002-8225-3495","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":416038,"name":"Samantha M. Riedy","orcid":"0000-0001-8658-5828","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":28,"raw_metadata":{"citation_network_status":"fetched"},"created_at":"2026-07-18T21:58:41.997408Z","pmid":"32241186","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}