{"doi":"10.1038/s41541-024-01008-6","title":"Impact of rotavirus vaccination in Malawi from 2012 to 2022 compared to model predictions","abstract":"Rotarix® vaccine was introduced into the Malawi national immunization program in October 2012. We analyzed data on children <5 years old hospitalized with acute gastroenteritis from January 2012 to June 2022, and compared to pre-vaccination data from 1997 to 2009. We estimated vaccine coverage before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic using data from rotavirus-negative children. We compared the observed weekly number of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis (RVGE) cases by age to predictions from a previously developed mathematical model to estimate overall vaccine effectiveness. The number of RVGE and rotavirus-negative acute gastroenteritis cases declined substantially following vaccine introduction. Vaccine coverage among rotavirus-negative controls was >90% with two doses by July 2014, and declined to a low of ~80% in October 2020 before returning to pre-pandemic levels by July 2021. Our models captured the post-vaccination trends in RVGE incidence. Comparing observed RVGE cases to the model-predicted incidence without vaccination, overall effectiveness was estimated to be modest at 36.0% (95% prediction interval: 33.6%, 39.9%), peaking in 2014, and was highest in infants (52.5%; 95% prediction interval: 50.1%, 54.9%). Our mathematical models provide a validated platform for assessing strategies to improve rotavirus vaccine impact in low-income settings.","journal":"npj Vaccines","year":2024,"id":441506,"datarank":0.3453877639491069,"base_score":2.302585092994046,"endowment":2.302585092994046,"self_citation_contribution":0.3453877639491069,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.3453877639491069,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":9,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.8732,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2024-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":1229320,"name":"Latif Ndeketa","orcid":"0000-0002-3376-597X","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":506057,"name":"Ernest O. Asare","orcid":"0000-0003-4078-8755","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":484514,"name":"Daniel Hungerford","orcid":"0000-0002-9770-0163","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":340413,"name":"Benjamin A. Lopman","orcid":"0000-0002-9238-0068","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":324148,"name":"Khuzwayo C. Jere","orcid":"0000-0003-3376-8529","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":484517,"name":"Nigel A. Cunliffe","orcid":"0000-0002-5449-4988","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":226287,"name":"Virginia E. Pitzer","orcid":"0000-0003-1015-2289","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":41,"raw_metadata":{"citation_network_status":"fetched"},"created_at":"2026-07-19T02:01:11.152920Z","pmid":"39562592","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}