{"doi":"10.1016/j.tjpad.2025.100326","title":"Dementia risk prediction: A comparative analysis of the ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, CogDrisk, LIBRA, and LIBRA2 indices in the HUNT study","abstract":"BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Dementia is a major global health concern, necessitating effective risk assessment tools and early intervention. This study compared the performance of five modifiable dementia risk indices - ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, CogDrisk, LIBRA, and LIBRA2 and a \"demographics-only\" (age, education) model. METHODS: We analyzed data from 5247 Norwegian participants in the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT4 70+, 2017-2019) and dementia risk indices from baseline data in HUNT3 (2006-2008). Logistic regression models assessed associations between standardized index scores and all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD) across age group (<65 vs. ≥65 years), sex, and APOE4 status. RESULTS: During the mean follow-up of 10.6 (9.3-12.3) years (SD=0.74), all indices significantly predicted dementia and AD, though none outperformed the demographics-only model. CogDrisk showed significantly better discriminative ability than all other indices (0.76, 95 % CI:0.74-0.78; DeLong p < 0.05), followed by LIBRA (0.75, 95 % CI:0.72-0.77) and ANU-ADRI (0.74, 95 % CI:0.72-0.76). LIBRA2 (0.69, 95 % CI:0.66-0.71) and CAIDE (0.59, 95 % CI:0.56-0.61) had significantly lower accuracy (DeLong p < 0.001). Removing demographics maintained rank order but reduced accuracy across all indices. Stratified analyses showed stronger performance in those ≥65 years and females at HUNT3, while APOE4 status did not affect performance. CONCLUSION: All indices were associated with dementia risk, with CogDrisk performing best across all conditions, and LIBRA2 and CAIDE performing weakest. No index outperformed a model including age and education only. Future research should refine risk indices for age- and sex-specific applications and assess whether simpler demographic models may suffice in some contexts.","journal":"The Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer s Disease","year":2025,"id":515195,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":6,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9133,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2025-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":1213462,"name":"Ellen Melbye Langballe","orcid":"0000-0002-8536-510X","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":405377,"name":"Gill Livingston","orcid":"0000-0001-6741-5516","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":251493,"name":"Kaarin J. Anstey","orcid":"0000-0002-9706-9316","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1209743,"name":"Kay Deckers","orcid":"0000-0003-1339-2974","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1379420,"name":"Fiona Mathews","orcid":"0000-0002-2580-2769","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":108675,"name":"Mika Kivimäki","orcid":"0000-0002-4699-5627","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":258472,"name":"Bjørn Heine Strand","orcid":"0000-0003-4385-8886","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1379421,"name":"Anne Marie Mork Rokstad","orcid":"0000-0002-3713-1229","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":38838,"name":"Steinar Krokstad","orcid":"0000-0002-2932-6675","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":355780,"name":"Geir Selbæk","orcid":"0000-0001-6511-8219","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1379419,"name":"Josephine Stuebs","orcid":"0000-0002-4982-679X","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":57,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T02:48:39.436300Z","pmid":"40829975","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}