{"doi":"10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100736","title":"Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US","abstract":"Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.","journal":"Epidemics","year":2023,"id":345448,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":13,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9476,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2023-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":250708,"name":"Kevin Messacar","orcid":"0000-0001-5830-3491","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":277153,"name":"Daniel C. Douek","orcid":"0000-0001-5575-8634","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":371263,"name":"Alicen B. Spaulding","orcid":"0000-0002-4687-3259","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":228273,"name":"C. Jessica E. Metcalf","orcid":"0000-0003-3166-7521","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":228274,"name":"Bryan T. Grenfell","orcid":"0000-0003-3227-5909","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":237891,"name":"Sang Woo Park","orcid":"0000-0003-2202-3361","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":30,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T01:11:39.484741Z","pmid":"38118274","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}