{"doi":"10.1016/j.envint.2025.109694","title":"Future temperature-related mortality in Latin American cities under climate change and population scenarios","abstract":"BACKGROUND: In Latin America, climate change, urbanization, and an aging population are intensifying health risks from extreme temperatures. To accurately assess future temperature-related mortality impacts, evidence that integrates key demographic factors-such as the dynamics of population age composition, mortality rates, and population size-is essential. METHODS: We projected the impact of nonoptimal temperatures on all-age and age-specific mortality during 2045-2054 for 326 cities in Latin America. Our analysis combined city-level daily mortality counts, gridded temperature data, downscaled and bias-corrected temperature simulations, and demographic data. We projected temperature-mortality impacts under two climate change scenarios while also considering changing population size, age structure, and age-specific mortality rates. FINDINGS: By 2045-2054, the percentage of heat-attributable deaths under the most extreme temperature scenario will more than double from 0.87 % (95 % CI 0.77, 0.96) to 2.06 % (95% CI 1.80, 2.33), but cold-related mortality will decrease. Population growth and aging will exacerbate heat-related risks and offset reductions in cold-related deaths. For example, changes in population age structure will drive an increase in the heat-related mortality rate of 176% from baseline for a moderate temperature scenario. INTERPRETATION: Beyond temperature changes, demographic shifts-particularly population growth and aging-will significantly amplify mid-century temperature impacts on mortality, underscoring the need for targeted climate adaptation and public health strategies.","journal":"Environment International","year":2025,"id":526346,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":3,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9005,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2025-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":337590,"name":"Josiah L. Kephart","orcid":"0000-0003-2556-4892","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":426264,"name":"Brisa N. Sánchez","orcid":"0000-0002-4824-7200","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1402456,"name":"M. V. S. Ramarao","orcid":null,"position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":776180,"name":"Saravanan Arunachalam","orcid":"0000-0002-6836-6944","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":754833,"name":"Nélson Gouveia","orcid":"0000-0003-0625-0265","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":668899,"name":"Iryna Dronova","orcid":"0000-0003-3339-3704","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":610134,"name":"Leah H. Schinasi","orcid":"0000-0001-8930-9896","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":295206,"name":"Usama Bilal","orcid":"0000-0002-9868-7773","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":528378,"name":"Waleska Teixeira Caiaffa","orcid":"0000-0001-5043-4980","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1402457,"name":"A. J. Jaffe","orcid":null,"position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":251227,"name":"Ana V. Diez Roux","orcid":"0000-0001-9658-7050","position":11,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":467558,"name":"Daniel A. Rodrı́guez","orcid":"0000-0001-6550-5518","position":12,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1336607,"name":"Maryia Bakhtsiyarava","orcid":"0000-0001-5327-4556","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":41,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T02:50:30.402772Z","pmid":"40737859","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}