{"doi":"10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104530","title":"The population impact of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) vaccination on the incidence of HSV-2, HIV and genital ulcer disease in South Africa: a mathematical modelling study","abstract":"BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests HSV-2 infection increases HIV acquisition risk and HIV/HSV-2 coinfection increases transmission risk of both infections. We analysed the potential impact of HSV-2 vaccination in South Africa, a high HIV/HSV-2 prevalence setting. METHODS: We adapted a dynamic HIV transmission model for South Africa to incorporate HSV-2, including synergistic effects with HIV, to evaluate the impact of: (i) cohort vaccination of 9-year-olds with a prophylactic vaccine that reduces HSV-2 susceptibility; (ii) vaccination of symptomatically HSV-2-infected individuals with a therapeutic vaccine that reduces HSV shedding. FINDINGS: An 80% efficacious prophylactic vaccine offering lifetime protection with 80% uptake could reduce HSV-2 and HIV incidence by 84.1% (95% Credibility Interval: 81.2-86.0) and 65.4% (56.5-71.6) after 40 years, respectively. This reduces to 57.4% (53.6-60.7) and 42.1% (34.1-48.1) if efficacy is 50%, 56.1% (53.4-58.3) and 41.5% (34.2-46.9) if uptake is 40%, and 29.4% (26.0-31.9) and 24.4% (19.0-28.7) if protection lasts 10 years. An 80% efficacious therapeutic vaccine offering lifetime protection with 40% coverage among symptomatic individuals could reduce HSV-2 and HIV incidence by 29.6% (21.8-40.9) and 26.4% (18.5-23.2) after 40 years, respectively. This reduces to 18.8% (13.7-26.4) and 16.9% (11.7-25.3) if efficacy is 50%, 9.7% (7.0-14.0) and 8.6% (5.8-13.4) if coverage is 20%, and 5.4% (3.8-8.0) and 5.5% (3.7-8.6) if protection lasts 2 years. INTERPRETATION: Prophylactic and therapeutic vaccines offer promising approaches for reducing HSV-2 burden and could have important impact on HIV in South Africa and other high prevalence settings. FUNDING: WHO, NIAID.","journal":"EBioMedicine","year":2023,"id":369294,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":9,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9363,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2023-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":108484,"name":"Katharine J Looker","orcid":"0000-0002-3375-0807","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":374733,"name":"Romain Silhol","orcid":"0000-0002-5750-7609","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":108482,"name":"Katy Turner","orcid":"0000-0002-8152-6017","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":257503,"name":"Richard Hayes","orcid":"0000-0002-1729-9892","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":1072944,"name":"Jenny Coetzee","orcid":"0000-0002-6145-6816","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":227356,"name":"Stefan Baral","orcid":"0000-0002-5482-2419","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":265301,"name":"Sheree Schwartz","orcid":null,"position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":743470,"name":"Philippe Mayaud","orcid":"0000-0001-5730-947X","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":108483,"name":"Sami L. Gottlieb","orcid":"0000-0003-4398-3441","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":374734,"name":"Marie‐Claude Boily","orcid":"0000-0003-3919-006X","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":301344,"name":"Peter Vickerman","orcid":"0000-0002-8291-5890","position":11,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":476551,"name":"Jack Stone","orcid":"0000-0002-4584-0068","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":40,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T01:15:28.704894Z","pmid":"36933410","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}