{"doi":"10.1002/pds.5580","title":"Prospective validation of a dynamic prognostic model for identifying <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 patients at high risk of rapid deterioration","abstract":"BACKGROUND: We sought to develop and prospectively validate a dynamic model that incorporates changes in biomarkers to predict rapid clinical deterioration in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. METHODS: We established a retrospective cohort of hospitalized patients aged ≥18 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 using electronic health records (EHR) from a large integrated care delivery network in Massachusetts including >40 facilities from March to November 2020. A total of 71 factors, including time-varying vital signs and laboratory findings during hospitalization were screened. We used elastic net regression and tree-based scan statistics for variable selection to predict rapid deterioration, defined as progression by two levels of a published severity scale in the next 24 h. The development cohort included the first 70% of patients identified chronologically in calendar time; the latter 30% served as the validation cohort. A cut-off point was estimated to alert clinicians of high risk of imminent clinical deterioration. RESULTS: Overall, 3706 patients (2587 in the development and 1119 in the validation cohort) met the eligibility criteria with a median of 6 days of follow-up. Twenty-four variables were selected in the final model, including 16 dynamic changes of laboratory results or vital signs. Area under the ROC curve was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.79-0.82) in the development set and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.78) in the validation set. The model was well calibrated (slope = 0.84 and intercept = -0.07 on the calibration plot in the validation set). The estimated cut-off point, with a positive predictive value of 83%, was 0.78. CONCLUSIONS: Our prospectively validated dynamic prognostic model demonstrated temporal generalizability in a rapidly evolving pandemic and can be used to inform day-to-day treatment and resource allocation decisions based on dynamic changes in biophysiological factors.","journal":"Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety","year":2022,"id":296137,"datarank":0.10397207708399181,"base_score":0.6931471805599453,"endowment":0.6931471805599453,"self_citation_contribution":0.10397207708399181,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.10397207708399181,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":22.178386323199504,"corpus_rank":9377,"citation_count":1,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":true,"is_dataset_confidence":0.6498,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2022-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":976686,"name":"Elvira D’Andrea","orcid":"0000-0002-5263-3964","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":292218,"name":"Rishi Desai","orcid":"0000-0003-0299-7273","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":371991,"name":"Joshua J. Gagne","orcid":"0000-0001-5428-9733","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":286443,"name":"Jun S. Liu","orcid":"0000-0002-4450-7239","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":707297,"name":"Shirley Wang","orcid":"0000-0001-7761-7090","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":493444,"name":"Kueiyu Joshua Lin","orcid":"0000-0003-4564-3715","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":36,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T00:31:12.531553Z","pmid":"36464785","pmcid":"PMC9877647","fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}