{"doi":"10.1002/ece3.1411","title":"Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models","abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Ecological Niche Models (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ENM</jats:styled-content>s) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ENM</jats:styled-content>applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ENM</jats:styled-content>‐based scenarios to General Circulation Models (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">GCM</jats:styled-content>s) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi‐<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">GCM</jats:styled-content>and multi‐emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (<jats:italic>sensu</jats:italic>Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">GCM</jats:styled-content>s and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">RCP</jats:styled-content>s) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IPCC</jats:styled-content>)<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">AR</jats:styled-content>5 report. Uncertainties arising from<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">GCM</jats:styled-content>s and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">GCM</jats:styled-content>s. We found that the between‐<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">GCM</jats:styled-content>variability was greater than the between‐<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">RCP</jats:styled-content>variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi‐<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">GCM</jats:styled-content>and multi‐<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">RCP</jats:styled-content>approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between‐<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">GCM</jats:styled-content>variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">GCM</jats:styled-content>s and<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">RCP</jats:styled-content>s to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties.</jats:p>","journal":"Ecology and Evolution","year":2015,"id":25887,"datarank":5.111881166479719,"base_score":5.209486152841421,"endowment":5.209486152841421,"self_citation_contribution":0.7814229229262133,"citation_network_contribution":4.330458243553506,"self_endowment_contribution":0.7814229229262133,"citer_contribution":4.330458243553506,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":182,"citer_count":175,"citers_with_citation_signal":139,"citers_with_endowment":139,"datacite_reuse_total":4,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":null,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":false,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":null,"fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":151149,"name":"Grégory Beaugrand","orcid":"0000-0002-0712-5223","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":151150,"name":"Nina‐Coralie Hautekèete","orcid":null,"position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":151151,"name":"Yves Piquot","orcid":null,"position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":151152,"name":"Christophe Luczak","orcid":null,"position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":151148,"name":"Eric Goberville","orcid":null,"position":0,"is_corresponding":false}],"reference_count":0,"raw_metadata":{"has_enrichment":true,"base_score":5.209486152841421,"endowment":5.209486152841421,"datacite_reuse_total":4,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"views":0,"has_version_chain":false,"is_dataset":false,"is_oa":false,"pmid":"25798227","pmcid":"PMC4364824","openalex_id":"https://openalex.org/W2033888620","authors":[],"funders":[{"funder_name":"Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversite","grant_id":"2011-11000922","title":null},{"funder_name":"Fondation pour la Recherche sur la 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