{"doi":"10.1002/cncr.33767","title":"Performance of the IBIS/Tyrer‐Cuzick model of breast cancer risk by race and ethnicity in the Women's Health Initiative","abstract":"BACKGROUND: The IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick model is used clinically to guide breast cancer screening and prevention, but was developed primarily in non-Hispanic White women. Little is known about its long-term performance in a racially/ethnically diverse population. METHODS: The Women's Health Initiative study enrolled postmenopausal women from 1993-1998. Women were included who were aged <80 years at enrollment with no prior breast cancer or mastectomy and with data required for IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick calculation (weight; height; ages at menarche, first birth, and menopause; menopausal hormone therapy use; and family history of breast or ovarian cancer). Calibration was assessed by the ratio of observed breast cancer cases to the number expected by the IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick model (O/E; calculated as the sum of cumulative hazards). Differential discrimination was tested for by self-reported race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, Asian or Pacific Islander, and American Indian or Alaskan Native) using Cox regression. Exploratory analyses, including simulation of a protective single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs140068132 at 6q25, were performed. RESULTS: During follow-up (median 18.9 years, maximum 23.4 years), 6783 breast cancer cases occurred among 90,967 women. IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick was well calibrated overall (O/E ratio = 0.95; 95% CI, 0.93-0.97) and in most racial/ethnic groups, but overestimated risk for Hispanic women (O/E ratio = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.62-0.90). Discrimination did not differ by race/ethnicity. Exploratory simulation of the protective SNP suggested improved IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick calibration for Hispanic women (O/E ratio = 0.80; 95% CI, 0.66-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick model is well calibrated for several racial/ethnic groups over 2 decades of follow-up. Studies that incorporate genetic and other risk factors, particularly among Hispanic women, are essential to improve breast cancer-risk prediction.","journal":"Cancer","year":2021,"id":156293,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":55,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9279,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2021-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":564672,"name":"Elisha Hughes","orcid":"0000-0002-3145-3913","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":660486,"name":"Timothy Simmons","orcid":"0000-0001-5741-4763","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":467531,"name":"Ryan Bernhisel","orcid":"0000-0001-6437-6929","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":564673,"name":"Braden Probst","orcid":"0000-0002-4160-800X","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":660487,"name":"Stephanie Meek","orcid":"0000-0002-2738-6578","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":314501,"name":"Jennifer L. Caswell‐Jin","orcid":"0000-0002-5711-8355","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":6558,"name":"Esther M. John","orcid":"0000-0003-3259-8003","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":462944,"name":"Jerry S. Lanchbury","orcid":"0000-0001-6747-4137","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":315547,"name":"Thomas P. Slavin","orcid":"0000-0002-5370-1535","position":9,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":498959,"name":"Susanne Wagner","orcid":"0000-0002-1559-7538","position":10,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":374316,"name":"Alexander Gutin","orcid":"0000-0002-6565-3729","position":11,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":243124,"name":"Thomas E. Rohan","orcid":"0000-0001-6897-4045","position":12,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":272433,"name":"Aladdin H. Shadyab","orcid":"0000-0002-9693-0522","position":13,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":11268,"name":"JoAnn E. Manson","orcid":"0000-0002-9426-7595","position":14,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":243120,"name":"Dorothy S. Lane","orcid":"0000-0003-3272-0451","position":15,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":243114,"name":"Rowan T. Chlebowski","orcid":"0000-0002-4212-6184","position":16,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":75616,"name":"Marcia L. Stefanick","orcid":"0000-0002-0284-6996","position":17,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":260002,"name":"Allison W. Kurian","orcid":"0000-0002-6175-9470","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":56,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-18T23:44:08.368845Z","pmid":"34228814","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}