{"doi":"10.1002/alz.14280","title":"External validation of dementia prediction models in Black or African American and White older adults: A longitudinal population‐based study in the United States","abstract":"INTRODUCTION: Identifying people at high risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia allows for timely intervention, which, if successful, will result in preventing or delaying the onset of the disease. METHODS: Utilizing data from the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP; n = 2130), we externally evaluated four risk-prediction models for AD dementia, including Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia (CAIDE), Australian National University Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI), Brief Dementia Screening Indicator (BDSI), and Dementia Risk Score (DRS), in Black or African American and White adults. RESULTS: BDSI had the highest discriminate abilities for AD dementia (c-statistics of 0.79 in Black and 0.77 in White adults), followed by ANU-ADRI, within the age range and follow-up period of the original development cohort. CAIDE had the lowest discriminating power (c-statistic ≤0.55). With increasing follow-up periods (i.e., 10-15 years), the discrimination abilities for all models declined. DISCUSSION: Because of racial disparities in AD dementia and longer preclinical and prodromal stages of disease development, race-specific models are needed to predict AD risk over 10 years. HIGHLIGHTS: Utilizing risk-prediction models to identify individuals at higher risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia could benefit clinicians, patients, and policymakers. Clinicians could enroll high-risk individuals in clinical trials to test new risk-modifiable treatments or initiate lifestyle modifications, which, if successful, would slow cognitive decline and delay the onset of the disease. Current risk-prediction models had good discriminative power during the first 6 years of follow-up but decreased with longer follow-up time. Acknowledging the longer preclinical phase of AD dementia development and racial differences in dementia risk, there is a need to develop race-specific risk-prediction models that can predict 10 or 20 years of risk for AD and related dementias.","journal":"Alzheimer s & Dementia","year":2024,"id":456644,"datarank":0.0,"base_score":0.0,"endowment":0.0,"self_citation_contribution":0.0,"citation_network_contribution":0.0,"self_endowment_contribution":0.0,"citer_contribution":0.0,"corpus_percentile":null,"corpus_rank":null,"citation_count":6,"citer_count":0,"citers_with_citation_signal":0,"citers_with_endowment":0,"datacite_reuse_total":0,"is_dataset":false,"is_dataset_confidence":0.9261,"is_data_producer":false,"deposit_databanks":null,"is_oa":true,"file_count":0,"downloads":0,"has_version_chain":false,"published_date":"2024-01-01","fair_score":null,"fair_percentile":null,"algorithm_id":"datarank_citation_only_1hop_v6","ranking_scope":"data_only","authors":[{"id":325844,"name":"Lisa L. Barnes","orcid":"0000-0002-0072-9817","position":1,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":280506,"name":"Todd Beck","orcid":"0000-0001-8781-2105","position":2,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":844215,"name":"Anisa Dhana","orcid":"0000-0001-5073-8669","position":3,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":628264,"name":"Xiaoran Liu","orcid":"0000-0001-7356-645X","position":4,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":668400,"name":"Pankaja Desai","orcid":"0000-0002-0904-5905","position":5,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":894350,"name":"Ted Kheng Siang Ng","orcid":"0000-0001-7348-0410","position":6,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":280507,"name":"Denis A. Evans","orcid":"0000-0003-4755-5401","position":7,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":280508,"name":"Kumar B. Rajan","orcid":"0000-0003-1268-4617","position":8,"is_corresponding":false},{"id":38611,"name":"Klodian Dhana","orcid":"0000-0002-6397-7009","position":0,"is_corresponding":true}],"reference_count":35,"raw_metadata":null,"created_at":"2026-07-19T02:03:32.516678Z","pmid":"39394865","pmcid":null,"fwci":null,"citation_percentile":null,"influential_citations":0,"oa_status":null,"license":null,"views":0,"total_file_size_bytes":0,"version_count":0,"fair_f":null,"fair_a":null,"fair_i":null,"fair_r":null,"fair_zscore":null,"fair_rationale":null,"fair_model":null,"fair_agent_version":null,"fair_fulltext_source":null,"fair_has_llm":null,"fair_computed_at":null,"clinical_trials":[],"software_tools":[],"db_accessions":[],"linked_datasets":[],"topics":[]}